Energy Systems & Emissions Modeling

Mission

This modeling unit uses system dynamics approaches to simulate cross-sectoral energy systems (energy, land and sea transport, agriculture, industry, etc.), their GHG emissions and decarbonization potential, including technological and economic solutions.  The Climate Hub Unit focusing on Climate and Energy Systems modeling will use system dynamics, linear and mixed integer optimization and stochastic modelling techniques to develop decarbonization pathways of the energy system at the national level.

1. Detailed inventories of the:

  • energy supply will be conducted by mapping power generation plants along with their associated fuel, including coal, oil, gas, renewables, bioenergy, nuclear and new zero carbon.
  • energy demand and use of different sectors such as transport, households, buildings and industry will be recorded along with their associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
  • Various climate solutions, such as carbon pricing will be tested and their effect on GHG emissions and overall temperature will be calculated. Scenario building will include the implementation of different fuels for power generation, electrification schemes for the transport or building sector, along with different energy efficiencies and the result will be a simulation of the scenario providing detailed values for all relevant variables, along with the resulting temperature increase.

 

Models:

 

2. Develop tailor-made models for national and/or regional -scale – focusing on specific needs or characteristics of the region under consideration. The models will focus on spatiotemporal aspects as well as model uncertainty aspects and will use a holistic approach blending techniques from system dynamics with scientific computing, statistical modelling and machine learning tools.

The BALMOREL energy system model, with its input and output parameters, and the functionalities of the model. The inputs can include power, heat, and hydrogen demands, fuel prices, taxes, subsidies, technology data (cost, efficiency, etc.), and weather data. The outputs refer to the optimal expansion of generation and transmission capacities, detailed dispatch information (which appears to include an hourly resolution of energy production by source), electricity prices and plant revenues, and CO2 emissions.

 

3. The input of natural capital as well as climate effects on it will be an important element of our analysis. We intend to co-evolve the models along with the currently under construction Ecosystems Valuation Database gradually leading to a tool that may connect past studies through elaborate meta-analysis to reliable estimates and predictions for regions under considerations and their dependence on various climate scenarios. The data base will also feed into the tailor-made models into the modules requiring quantification of natural capital. This will be a crucial link to policy, by prioritizing actions for areas and ecosystem services that are degraded.

Results will be calibrated and tested against the suite of large Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) from prestigious institutes around the world, such as IIASA (GAINS,GLOBIOM-G4M) and PNNL (ESM).

 

Head

Dogan Keles

Professor, Technical University of Denmark

Yuen Yoong Leong

Professor, Sunway University; Director, Sustainability Studies, SDSN Asia

Team

Dr. Rasmus Bramstoft

Assistant Professor, Technical University of Denmark

Dr. Konstantinos Dellis

Post-Doctoral Researcher, "Athena" Research and Innovation Center

Stathis Devves

Researcher, PhD candidate

Theis Utoft Madsen

PhD Student, Technical University of Denmark

Dr. Conrad Felix Michel Landis

Senior Researcher, Adjunct Lecturer, Athens University of Economics and Business

Ioannis Kountouris

PhD Student, Technical University of Denmark

Dr. Georgios Papayiannis

Lecturer of Computational Mathematics at Hellenic Naval Academy, Department of Naval Sciences, Section of Mathematics

Tatiana Pliakou

M.Sc. in International and European Energy Law

Prof. Asterios Pliakos

Professor of European Law, Athens University of Economics and Business

Angelos Plataniotis

Insurance Supervisor, PhD candidate

Prof. Nikos Theodosiou

Professor, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Chair UN SDSN Black Sea

Supporting Projects

Under the auspices of the United Nations Secretary-General, the Council of Engineers for the Energy Transition (CEET) is a global, high-level body of engineers and energy systems experts to contribute to the UN Secretary-General’s goal to build a coalition to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, and to the UN generally on engineering pathways to achieve comprehensive decarbonization by mid-century. The work of the CEET is undertaken by an independent and impartial council of recognized global experts, serving in their personal capacity and responding to requests for information by the UN System.

MERMAID: Innovative Multi-purpose offshore platforms: planning, design and operation

PI, Prof. Phoebe Koundouri, Athens University of Economics and Business

Collaborations

MIT Climate Interactive

Climate Interactive creates and shares tools that drive effective and equitable climate action.

Their work: Critically, the Paris Agreement asks all countries to prepare by 2020 low-emission development strategies that chart out how emissions will fall through to 2050. SDSN has played an instrumental role in developing and popularizing the concept of long-term pathways through the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP).  The Paris Agreement also emphasizes the central role of advances in low-emission technologies and their diffusion. The annual Zero Emissions Solutions Conference (formerly the Low-Emissions Solutions Conference) spearheaded by SDSN, the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) and ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability was launched at COP22 in Morocco and aims to advance the pace of development for key technologies. As scientist and engineers have demonstrated, we have the technologies and means to decarbonize our economy, it’s up to nations, businesses, and cities to set on a course today for a carbon neutral tomorrow. Learn more here.

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