This report by the Global Climate Hub presents an interdisciplinary modelling and governance framework to assess post-wildfire flash-flood risks and support mitigation actions.
Kineta (Greece) is used as a case study application, assessing its 2019 post-fire flood event. Combining remote sensing, a WRF-ARW storm reanalysis, a 2D HEC-RAS hydraulic model and a thorough analysis of post-fire soil erosion and flood protection treatments (PEFTs), we compare pre-fire, post-fire, and post-fire-with-protection scenarios.
We quantify the wildfire’s effect on the inundation (~25%) and show that targeted PEFTs can largely offset this effect. A spatial cost analysis indicates proposed protections could have cost just around 13% of the direct flood damage cost. We present a prevention versus cure case, and leverage the findings by mapping governance barriers using a diagnostic approach (VRK framework, based on similar Australian experiences) and offer a thorough stakeholder roadmap, national design-storm tools, and focused policy recommendations for resilient, cost-effective action, operational for other sites facing combined hazards.
This report bridges existing policy and modeling gaps by simulating all 35 EU NECPs through a systems-nexus framework that integrates energy-emissions, food-land, biofuels, and water models under two scenarios: “Business as Usual” (BAU) and full implementation of National Commitments (NC) for net-zero.
We link five models with projections to 2050:
i) FABLE Calculator – models food, land use, and GHG impacts under current and CAP-aligned policies;
ii) LEAP – simulates energy demand/supply across sectors, estimating multi-pollutant GHG emissions;
iii) BiofuelGCH – assesses domestic bioethanol/biodiesel potential and trade imbalances;
iv) LandReqCalcGCH – translates renewable targets into land/investment needs and flags land-use conflicts;
v) WaterReqGCH – estimates sectoral water withdrawals vs. sustainable supply, identifying stress hotspots and RBMP gaps.
Under BAU, agricultural emissions remain stagnant, energy emissions drop slightly, land expansion for renewables is limited, and water stress persists—especially in Southern Europe. The NC scenario achieves significant GHG reductions, improved land and food sustainability, and higher reliance on hydrogen and renewables—though net electricity imports rise where domestic capacity is limited. Biofuel potential remains underused, and key countries (e.g., Germany, France, Spain, Italy) continue to import. Renewable land use is feasible but needs careful planning. Water stress, especially in agriculture, is worsened by vague, unenforceable NECP/RBMP targets.
We offer 20 policy recommendations covering sectoral, country-specific, and policy-level actions. Highlights include:
– Coordinated strategies for buildings, renewables, and urban transport;
– Roadmaps for decarbonizing steel, cement, and chemicals;
– Agroecological shifts and creative land-use solutions (agrivoltaics, brownfield solar, agro-pastoral wind);
– Enforceable water-use targets in CAP and RBMPs;
– Boosting biofuel production and cross-sectoral uptake.
All NECPs must align to a unified 2050 horizon, improve energy demand/supply modeling, and integrate cross-border energy and hydrogen trade. Linking NECPs with CAP and RBMPs ensures coherence across agriculture, land, water, and climate. Equity must be addressed by channeling financial and technical support to lower-income Member States for a fair net-zero transition.
This report presents an integrated modelling approach, to assess Greek National Commitments for Climate Neutrality, within a holistic framework that includes food-land, water, and cross-sectoral energy systems. This is achieved by combing different models (FABLE Calculator, BiofuelGCH tool, LEAP, Maritime GCH model, WaterReqGCH tool, LandReqCalcGCH tool) under a scenario of joint implementation of the most important sectoral policies driving the transition to climate-neutrality. In particular, different energy, agricultural, shipping and water policy frameworks are simulated jointly in such a National-Commitment scenario, to provide useful insights on whether these plans can achieve the climate-neutrality goals and identify weaknesses that need to be addressed in order to capitalise on the opportunities for a broader sustainability transition.
Two scenarios were considered: (a) the ‘current accounts’ or business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, which assumes that the current trends will continue applying until 2050; (b) the National Commitments for Climate Neutrality (NCNC), which assumes that the different climate-neutrality relevant policies per sector, are implemented together. The presented modelling approach is tested in Greece, but it is replicable for any other country. We find that although specific sectoral plans have the potential to achieve multiple co-benefits, the absence of a unified framework can lead to inefficiencies and missed opportunities for synergies and unintended conflicts among objectives.
Moreover, we present a novel Decision Support System (DSS), that allows policymakers to refine their NCNC, and prioritize investments for measures for implementation, in order to achieve decarbonization in a more efficient way. The DSS is based on MultiCriteria Analysis, uniquely combining Fuzzy AHP and Fuzzy TOPSIS techniques. The results of the DSS application consist a refined set of measures, the SDSN scenario, which can lead to decarbonization faster, at lower emissions over the planning horizon, at lower costs and efforts, compared to the NCNC.
During its first year, the Global Climate Hub has initiated a holistic approach to climate, economic, and energy modelling to deliver a first set of results. The process described in this report consist of a thorough review and assessment of potent Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and the delineation of a first set of sustainable pathways on the EU energy sector, the deployment, and effects of renewable energy transition in Southeast Asia and the development of sustainable pathways for land-use and food systems in Greece. In addition, the researchers of the GCH are examining interlinkages and complementarities across diverse IAMs which will yield horizontal and vertical synergies and elaborate on the potential pathways to net zero for 2050.
The aim of this report is to present the work of the Global Climate Hub on net zero pathways, mirroring the work undertaken in some of its distinct units. Having established the benchmark in the current state of environmental indicators and environmental policies (operating and designed), the GCH is currently collating and evaluating scientific methods embedded in modelling systems in order to integrate strands of research into coherent environmental, energy and socioeconomic pathways.
Section 2 briefly summarizes the review of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) which form the multi-dimension scientific arsenal in the pathways’ development, while section 3 outlines a first set of results stemming from energy and land-use models. More specifically, section 3.1 addresses the issue of decarbonization of the EU energy system as envisioned in the Fit-for-55 and RePowerEU initiatives through the projections of the BALMOREL model. Section 3.2 describes the pivotal role of renewable energy for bolstering ecosystems services in Southeast Asia and section 3.3 summarizes the key tenets of sustainable and-use and food system pathways for Greece using the FABLE Calculator. Finally, section 4 describes the potential for system integration under the auspices of the GCH and highlights the areas for future work in promoting net zero pathways.